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Forex Basics – PIP Definition and More

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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Day #2 of my Forex Journey

Real quick before I get into my next steps of my FX Journey, id like to say thank you to all the people who commented on my last post! All of the tips I got were really eye-opening and introduced me to different parts of FX trading that I didn't even know existed. So thank you so much, and I hope to get more interesting feedback from you guys in the future! Also Im going to probably change my writing frequency from daily to biweekly. I think writing about every little trade is not going to be as beneficial to me as writing about my overall progress at certain points throughout the week.
I started this trading day out by learning up on order flow. A whole bunch of you guys suggested really interesting youtubers to watch, and I started with Mr. pip's series on order flow. After I finished up watching a few of his videos, I started to tweak my trading plan so that I could get in some chart time. I changed currency pair from EUUSD to the AUD/USD, the time frame from the 4 hour to the 1 hour, and my indicators from RSI, Stochastic, 2 SMAs and ADX to ATR, RSI, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I also added a little fundamental analysis in my trading plan because I think that I am being far too reliant on my indicators. I planned to check the economic calendar and determine the general trend of the currency pairs that are strongly correlated to the AUD/USD before I began my chart analysis. In addition to all of my analysis, I tried to practice using the techniques I learned in Mr. Pip's videos and analyze the order flow of the chart. Even if my analysis of order flow is wrong, as long as I am getting practice I am learning.
Eventhough I planned to use today to back-test indicators and find a solid new plan, I did not have enough time. I ended up getting on my demo account really late in the day, and started to force myself to enter a trade. Destructive habits like this could lead into some massive issues when I eventually get into live trading. To combat this harmful attitude specifically, I will restrict myself to trading on certain parts of the day (for example session overlaps, news releases, and earlier in the day). Despite this mistake I still continued with my trading strategy. I calculated all the currency correlations for AUS/USD using the past weeks economic data, and set my indicators in place. After checking the overall trend of the most strongly correlated pairs (Positive: EUUSD, GPB/USD, Negative: USD/CAD, USD/JPY) I started to analyze the order flow. All the correlated currencies, except for EUUSD, indicated that the AUD/USD would fall, while my order flow analysis indicated the opposite. Seeing as though I am extremely new to order flow, I dismissed this analysis, and ended up forcing a trade on the AUD/USD going short when my indicators seemed to line up correctly. I learned from last time that I should not alter or close my trade purely based on emotion, and to just wait till the market hits my stop loss or take profit. I included a trailing stop loss of 60 pips this time, but I have no evidence to base that number range on. The trade is currently open and I am down about 30 pips.
Although I am not labeling this trade as a loser yet, I can definitely see a lot of holes in my trading strategy. The most obvious mistake in my eyes right now is my use of indicators. Currently all my trades are purely based on what my indicators say, and since I do not have any back-tested data to support the credibility of my indicators, it feels a lot like strategic gambling. Another issue is that I feel far too reliant on indicators alone. I think that if I can find ways to include various types of analysis efficiently and evenly in my trading plan I will become a much more skillful and well-rounded trader. In order to combat these two issues I will begin forming various types of trading strategies this weekend and back-test them all extensively. I also plan on researching more on price action, order flow, and Naked Forex.
Once again any and all feedback is welcome. I am just beginning Forex, but it had been a huge passion of mine and I don't plan on stopping anytime soon.
submitted by Aman-1127 to Forex [link] [comments]

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Ever wonder why when you trade your stop gets tagged? Although you put it in a spot where "There's no way price will want to reach my stop level for sure this time"
As a trader, particularly a new trader – I've always wondered why my stops were only tagged for the price of running briefly the area that I've ever so carefully researched ... hit my stop point ..... then move on in the direction of my original study and run to the point where my profit should have been taken.
Everything leaving me wondering ...... In the hell for what did this do??? Obviously this is a common issue that has plagued most traders. At least, I know that I have faced this very problem for years.

What I noticed was that there was a very distinctive pattern going on, and it was repeating itself again and again. I noticed that the traditional supply and demand theory, support and resistance zones, or double top / double bottom trading patterns that I have been told time and time again that price has always covered these regions, was not really a real thing.

The argument had been, ..... Put me into the shoes of the major investment banks vs. the home-trading fighter who was going to conquer the markets every day. If you were a large company with an infinite supply of money and you decided to bring a massive chunk of it into the game, you can't just dump the whole lot into the game and demand all your orders to be filled out at once, then take off the price in the direction you want .... no ..... That is not exactly the way it operates.All these major organizations need to do is pair orders.

And they match that order by sending the markets to areas where liquidity is high .... The stops AKA!

Let 's say you 're evaluating the markets, for example, and deciding that price wants to go higher than an old regular target as it's in a bullish uptrend at the moment. And you see price for the past day, or so, not willing to go any lower.
What looks like a bit of a demand shelf or support level where the demand is all in a nice tight clustered row that just doesn't seem to want to go down and you know for sure this time price won't go under that heavily protected area ..... only for the price to run down quickly and refuse to go up (in this case a long position).
And I started to note that these "secure zones" or places where price is certainly not going to come up / down to be simply used by these large entities as feeding grounds for harvesting liquidity and adding more positions to include them in a larger movement.

They need a lot of money to buy in and just to do so, your sell stop is great. Many traders put their stops below this tight pack range of candles a few pips / ticks / cents believing they 're secure as price obviously doesn't want to come down below them. And most traders have their positions liquidated by the hungry major capital banks to feed the whole push higher than you were originally right about.

And how can you stop this pitfall happening to you is the million-dollar question? There are a few ways to handle this and keep your hard-earned money from being ripped away from you in an moment, which you have at risk in the markets.

Stop-Hunting and the Hunger For New Capital

I found that you would do much better in your trading career if you look at these areas (in the above example a long position) as a chance rather than a safe zone to put your stop. What I mean by that is, anticipate them coming down under those equal lows and try to get far below it instead of getting long above the area of consolidation. Yeah, that means you're going to have to go long when the competition runs against you and I know , I know, it feels really uncomfortable and wrong and goes against all you've been taught ... but believe me that this approach can give you the very best possible entries.
Imagine: getting into the day 's low and riding price action all the way up to the top of everyday scale!!! Wouldn't this be terrific?

Well, if your quantitative skills are timely and your business research tells you to go a long way, then all you need to do is wait for the perfect entry. Let the price build up and create "demand shelf" or support areas for that. Let the market shift sideways and bounce around like a pinball mocking all the other traders who were at the top of these stuff for a long time and put their stops just below them in hopes that the price would not come down and stop them. All the while playing with and holding their emotions on the cliff of –Will this be a winner, or a trade loser? So when price does the unimaginable and runs below the support area and scoops up all the traders stops you can then go long and take part in the glorious upside of being right – and of course make some money doing it.

Notice facile? Well, that is not so. It takes patience and timing and experience to catch all those eager participants who keep their stops on a silver platter for the fat and thirsty banks to suck them up, as the markets normally send price south of the border.
Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital (meme)

You have to define the times of the day when the wrong move is made apparent.
Or when they make that low of the day – typically within the 1st 1 – 4 hours
of the trading day, and I don't mean either when the banks come online at 8 a.m. NY.
I mean 12 am, at the beginning of the day.
So yes you 're definitely going to have to be awake if you like watching
price do its thing and don't trust the process of buying into those down candles.
And use a limit order like me-then go to sleep and trust your overall analysis to be right and wake up to your morning with a nice little start.
But the trick is-where are you going to shop under the lows?

And where does your stop then go when you buy?

Those are all interesting questions that I should seek to answer clearly here – but alas, all markets are different.

Yet general rule of thumb as follows:

  1. You should predict that such stop-sweeps will occur in grades 5 and 10. The average is usually about 10, cents, pips, ticks or otherwise. The bigger the step down the more likely it is not a stop raid and potentially a reversal of the pattern. And you can prevent too much danger and keep the stop fairly secure.
Your stop will need to go low on the 1hr map below the next move. As a minimum, and yes, that may mean a greater risk level that you are usually prepared to take.
However if that is the case then try to turn your power back.
You don't need to make every trade worth a million dollars.
This is about continuity, when dealing, not winning the draw.
In your research you need to be sure the price will push higher as this is how the overall trend directions point it.
I am not recommending trade in these types of trades against the trend.
You need to be in full agreement with the direction of the total daily level.
And bringing it in.

Also, a great way to place the maximum risk reward for your take profit:

Attempt to position it in places above the market where short-sellers will stop.

And in a nutshell, with a bit of analysis, all the knowledge I described above can be readily found, I didn't come up with it on my own and these ideas are not unique. Yet how you adapt them to your particular trading style is up to you and relies on your interpretation of these principles for your success and/or failure. Price is fractal and would want to return to markets it has previously sold before – if you accept the basic fact you ought to be doing very well in your business career.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
submitted by Eva_Canares to FTMO_Forex_Trading [link] [comments]

Statistical Edge Trading

Statistical Edge Trading

Statistical Edge Trading

Have you ever traded with statistical edge? Our Allen trade talks about backing up the trading network and leveraging it from excellent newspapering. This is a stage that is undermined by many traders but fairly, it can be a crucial factor in boosting your trust and believing in your system. For those interested in this sort of research, you can check out the FTMO Statistical Application.
Trading with a Statistical edge
Although many traders back-test and record their trades to verify the trading system 's feasibility, monitoring and using the data to maximize both your stop loss and profit goal is a tremendous advantage. Two of the most critical pieces of data that I record when reporting trades is the drawdown and the benefit potential.

The drawdown, to be sure, is how far a trade goes against my place before it goes in my favour.

Whereas the benefit potential is the maximum distance from my entry which the trade moves in my favor. It isn't important and it's uncommon, in general, that I actually exit the trade. Yet definitely coming out at or as close as can be.
Firstly, I record my trades in two ways, using screenshots of the charts themselves where I annotate my entry, date, type of trade and all other relevant details related to my methodology, such as strength and weakness analysis , multiple time frame analysis and correlation. I also note on the map the drawdown and benefit potential of the trade.

Then I go through my Excel spreadsheet with main details. See "excel" below.

Excel spreadsheet with main details.

This includes the date, day, session, pair, time, route, entry price, closing price, type of setup, type of entry, type of exit, drawdown, potential for benefit and outcome. I then let excel do all the heavy lifting for myself as I can sort my trades numerous ways, by day, by session, by pair, by route, by type of set-up etc.

But where the really cool stuff is under the "Mind-blowing stats" tab where I have some of the above filterable statistics that will help me to optimize both my stop loss and my benefit goal.

Here is a summary of the specification.

When you use a risk percentage account to calculate your position size (as you should), so the lower the pause, the larger a position size you will trade in. The stop must, therefore, have a high likelihood of remaining. The vast majority of trading books, guides, videos, etc., advise that after a recent high / low swing, the stop will be many pips.

But my trade documents helped me to come up with a statistical advantage for my stoppage placement.

As can be seen in the "Drawdown" tag, Trading my Type 1 BO (breakout out) on GBPAUD, 79.55 percent of the time my drawdown was less than 25 pips, although it was just 81.82 percent at 30 pips and 84.09 percent at 35 pips.

Statistical Edge Trading
So when using a larger pause, an extra loss or 2, the advantage of having a greater size of the place and thereby netting more money makes the extra loss(s) inconsequential.

Furthermore, the income goal can also be optimized.

Looking at the "Profit Potential" connection and remaining on GBPAUD again for my Type 1 BO trades, we can easily see that almost 80 percent of the time, those trades get between 20 and 30 pips.

Statistical Edge Trading (b)
It is a perfect place to take off 1/2 of the spot and push the stop to flat. So we can let the rest of the half run to about 50 pips where 59.09 percent of the trades touch.

Obviously market conditions aren't always the same, so if you can recognise when they are, i.e. linked moves or strengthening or weakening other classes (commodity pairs or safe haven pairs), then you can make educated decisions about how far a trade will go.

Statistical Edge Trading (meme)

I hope this information 's helpful to you.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
submitted by Eva_Canares to FTMO_Forex_Trading [link] [comments]

forex factory

In addition, in Forex, with a little bit of money, you are able to control bigger market positions using the leverage or margin trading. Effect of 1:100 is common in the Fore marketplace. It permits you to control numbers 100 times bigger than your capital, whilst leverage of 1:1000 and 1:500 are available with a few businesses that are offshore. The Forex market can be traded anyplace and everywhere. As long as you have access to web and a pc, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important issue to consider before leaping to trading currencies is it is worth practicing with"paper money", or"fake money", online demo account. Most foreign exchange agents have demo accounts where you are able to download their trading system and training in real-time with real market information but with"virtual currency". While profitable demonstration trading cannot guarantee your success with real money. best forex brokers

There are numerous advantages of the Forex market over several kinds of financial trading. There is 1 type that springs to mind, when speaking about different investments that are accessible to everyone. Even the Forex or foreign exchange market has many advantages over other types of trading. Because it is an OTC (over-the-counter) market, the Forex market is open 24 hours daily, unlike the regular stock or commodity markets. Most investments require a substantial quantity of money until you're able to make the most of this investment opportunity. Everyone can enter the marketplace with just as little as 1 to trade a"micro account", which enables you to open positions of 1,000 units. One lot of 1,000 units of currency is equivalent to 1 contract from account that is micro. Each"pip" or"tick" (lowest currency rate movement down or up ) is worth $0.10 profit or decrease, depending on wheather you are going with the Marketplace or against it Forex is among the most liquid markets. best forex brokers in uk
When trading currencies on the spot Forex market you've got complete control of your capital, which means that you can purchase and sell your positions anytime throughout market stage. This is a definite benefit because, if you will need to utilize your account cash, it may be obtained without additional commission or waiting intervals. Many different sorts of investments need holding up your money . Forex dealers may be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders want stock prices to grow to be able to take a profit, since short-selling is an issue to limits in stock trades. Forex dealers may produce a profit . Forex Currency trading is considered risky but with a trading platform that was fantastic to very decent money management skills, and a certain level of self-discipline, the risks of Forex trading can be lessened. brokers reviews
submitted by elzajohn265 to u/elzajohn265 [link] [comments]

College forex trader - would appreciate some help!

So a few months ago, someone I had met in the first few weeks of my first semester at college, had been posting pictures of his MT4 account with his profits, and I was pretty intrigued. I asked him what it was, and he said it was the Forex market, so I wanted to learn more and asked to meet up with him. When we met he was explaining it a little more and told me that he was in this networking trade group called IMarketsLive and went on to offer for me to sign up, upon which I said I wanna do a little research before I sign up for anything. And so I did, and saw a lot of different opinions about IML and the things they do, and I wasn't really attracted to the networking aspect and also did not want to start paying $275 a month just to be in the group. It seemed to me like it was kind of a pyramid scheme, so I turned down the offer but decided to try to learn about the Forex market for free on my own.
I started doing more research about it in my free time, and eventually I discovered the BabyPips website where you can go through around a 330 lesson course, which goes through a lot of the basics and foundations of Forex trading. I made it through that in about a month and a half or so, and then opened up a demo account with IG. I watch a lot of youtube so more and more videos about forex started popping up in my recommended and have definitely helped along the road.
One thing I saw is not to have a demo account for too long, so after around a month of having the demo and getting a little profit, I opened a live account with $300 on Oanda. I use their online trading platform and it's alright, there are some things I liked better with IG but that's besides the point.
I've been trading with lots of 500 units or less so I'm only down about $6, but I feel like I'm kind of stuck. After all the stuff I've read and watched so far, I've come to understand that there are some key things every trader needs to do. From what I've seen, it's
Among a few other things I might be forgetting, I understand these are crucial points to follow to become a successful trader. The only thing is I feel like I've flooded myself with so much information and I really don't know where to go from here. I don't have a trading plan mainly because the best thing I've heard to do is make one that fits my trading style, but simply put I don't know what my trading style is and don't know how to actually construct a usable plan.
I know many people join the market because of the dream of turning $25 into a million dollars, however I don't have that mindset. Also I know I should focus first on preserving my capital and being consistent rather than focus on getting a lot of money, I just don't know how to do this. I am ready to put more effort into the market, I just don't know where to put it.
Another thing to note is that for when I am ready and have developed a proper strategy and everything, I have sufficient capital (around $3k) to actually start making some serious profit. (for a 19 y/o!)
Anyways, if you would like to give any advice, tips, things to avoid, stories, anything - that would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks for reading👍
EDIT: This is my first time using reddit so I can't reply to anything because I don't have enough karma whatever that means. But thanks for your responses, they will definitely help me to start building my own strategy.
submitted by sender27 to Forex [link] [comments]

Why I Think The Emphasis On "Strategy" Is So Misplaced

This is a recurring theme that's come up in people reaching out to me via DM. I'm getting asked a LOT about my 'strategy' and getting requests to review your strategies / trading plans, so I thought I'd bang out a post here as a sort of catch-all. It got to the point where I was copy / pasting the same reply to a number of people.
Strategy is really important. You definitely need a cohesive strategy or set of strategies that help determine what gets you in and out of trades. I personally run a mechanical trend-following system in addition to my discretionary style of trading. Even my discretionary style of trading however, is viewed through a framework that gives me consistent structure to follow on trade after trade.
Now that I've gotten that point out of the way, here is my next statement:* Strategy is COMPLETELY USELESS without having a thorough and expert understanding of the markets in the first place*
Here's my analogy: let's say you really want to get into the fast food business. Now let's say you're fairly smart and you realize that your best chances for success are to buy into an established franchise (McDonald's, Taco Bell, KFC, whatever). Now here's the kicker, who do you think is more likely to succeed at running this franchise? Someone who has worked within the industry their entire lives and knows it inside and out, versus someone with no industry experience. Okay, okay, that question is completely rhetorical; it's obvious who has the edge here.
Trading is no different, and it's why buying a course or finding a guru has let so many of you down so many times before. You're trying to follow an established plan (one that has in fact quite possibly brought success to whomever is selling you their wisdom), but without an expert understanding of the industry you are participating in.
If you reject my premise that knowing your shit when it comes to the macro side of things is important, that's fine. Let's take what seems to be the dominant retail route of pure technical analysis. If you don't know technical analysis inside and out, you are not setting yourself up for success when you buy a course (or even read through a free one like BabyPips). After doing a rough search for Forex courses, I haven't found any technical ones (maybe apart from Adam Grimes. I like Adam; don't know the guy personally, but know of him through colleagues) that actually teach you about technical analysis and not just are feeding you a strategy.
My entire point here is that if you don't engage with the nuts and bolts of the arena in which you're competing, you are at an inherent disadvantage. For example, I've talked to a trader that had Stochastics, RSI, AND MACD on their chart. What is the point of having 3 momentum indicators apart from enjoying a gratuitous circle jerk of redundant 'confirmation'? But this trader didn't know the math behind the indicators, what makes them similar and different, how they can be applied. If they did, then maybe they could have explained in greater detail how having those 3 gives them a defined edge.
My favourite example of a trader who 'knows their shit' is Thomas Bulkwoski. I don't like his style, but you can't deny he has done his homework. He has dived so deep into chart patterns that from memory he can quote you various failure points and success rates for individual patterns. He has meticulously studied what works and what doesn't, and can explain the WHY behind all of that.
If you don't know your shit, you will eat shit. So know your shit! Once you know your shit, then it becomes far easier to strategize.
End of rant :)
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

(Cont.) Strategy Analysis and Prep GJ - 11.11

(Cont.) Strategy Analysis and Prep GJ - 11.11
11.10.2019 analysis: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/duoc68/uthefrozen_one_strategy_analysis_and_prep_gj/

DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS

Monday - Definitely a day ruled by the bulls. Referencing my last post, there was not a whole lot that my trade entries (chosen before market) allowed me to do. A bit past the upper side of my chosen entry zone you will see a double top, and on the M5, it makes a pretty clean M pattern. However, because it was so extended, I simply didn't want to jump in and "Guess the Top". Those with better analysis than I may have seen the turning point as the perfect short, as it lined up with a high made on Nov 7 at about 10:45 just perfectly. Personally, I think it is difficult to decipher demand from noise on the M15, but today was a learning experience, as I was surprised to see so many levels blown out of the water by London's early moves. Lessons learned.
Anyhow, not much changed here in the larger time frames. Daily chart and H4 are creating a very nice volatility tunnel. A true tease, the guppy is not giving us much here. What really bothers me? On the daily chart, it looks as though the nearest upward spike peaked on Oct. 21. Look left and what do you see? Not a whole lot. Nothing in the way of major supply to stop the impulse we saw. Much like banks build their order book in the JPY session (depending on who you study), this appears to be the same thing only on a grander scale. Is the lack of supply/selling pressure enough to see this to 147.xxx in the coming month, or would the banks rather average down to better supply/price before making that same move...

POSITIONING OF POTENTIAL ENTRIES:

This pair is in a lot of noise, and as such, like yesterday, I am truly thrown off about whether to choose a long or short bias. Rather, I will simply determine two points at which I feel I have both allowed myself to allow the market to make its move as well as allowed for the over extension necessary for good R:R.
To the short side, I like an entry of around 140.58. The red "1", "2", and "3" represent any unfilled orders in the near term. the 3rd level is the most opportune in my humble opinion. Beyond that, there is significant room to run, so I will be looking for good signs of reversal before making my entry.
To the long side, I am more cloudy. At the very least, the US/AUD low provides some simply stop hunt opportunities, but this is not as far out as I'd prefer. the M15 Proximal demand zone shows a fairly text book rally-base-rally. However, being on the M15, I am not putting much behind it other than a zone to watch should the long stop hunt move get blown by. The 3rd level of demand listed with the Blue "3", provides a location with unfilled stops that stand the most to lose given the last trading day.

https://preview.redd.it/2bwwnzutj6y31.png?width=1915&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd16179dd0516b773abc6b099f572e03d8b4c2c8
All that said, I will wait and see which direction the market surges in London open (if at all), and then prep myself for the fade. Having looked through u/thefrozen_one trades, I am going to be looking for the following to assist my entry:
  • Sharp rejection at my chosen entries - I am still learning how to place these, so I will also be looking left for structure to provide confluence to my analysis in the moment.
  • M/W patterns on the M15 or M5
  • Tweezers/long wicks - again, looking for confluence here and not blindly trading wicks.
I appreciate those who entertain my rambling. At this stage, I am not anywhere near predicting the next move. However, this has been my first opportunity to consistently keep myself honest in analyzing and tracking a forex pair, free of indicator madness. I am excited to see my rather dry and ambiguous observances mature into confident bias with which I attack daily trades.
Green pips to all!
submitted by Rich_Foamy_Flan to Forex [link] [comments]

Free algorithm/system code for you all - using RSI

So i thought this would interest a bunch of you. I wantd to show a simple system that has worked since it was published in 1996, thats 23 years of "out of sample" testing.
The system was published in a book in 1996, using RSI which was published in 1976.
The system is created by legendary trader Larry Connors.

The rules are as following:
Rule 1. Price is above Moving average 200 (The filter)
Rule 2. RSI[2] crosses under 10 (The triggeentry)
Rule 3. RSI[2] crosses above 50 - you sell

Thats it. As many might be thinking: theres no money management? no stop loss? no target?

Not in this backtest. That said you should definitly backtest with different types of money management to see what works best.

The picture shows the system (blue line) vs buy and hold (orange line). The market is S&P futures (called US 500), on the daily timeframe. The software used for backtest is ProRealTime and the broker is IG.com

https://imgur.com/a/PG2VTxe

Edit: This is a very well known system amongst people who algotrading/systematic trading. Im gonna bet some of you have heard about it, for others its an eye opener.

Edit: The photo is trading 4* 1€ contracts. Meaning if US 500 moves 1 point higher, you earn 4€. Buy n hold is using 1*1€ contract. The reason for using 4*1€ contracts in photo is because the RISK of buy n hold = 873 pips/€ drawdown as maximum drawdown. The RISK of the strategy using 4* 1€ contract = 900€ max drawdown. So the photo is showing what you COULD have gotten vs buy and hold for the same amount risk taken. Another Edit: You can trade as many contracts u want, the point is whoever many contracts you buy n hold, u can trade the same number * 4 with this system and it has outperformed buynhold by faaaaar.

edit: People have asked if this works for forex and or other markets/timeframes: It might, it might not. For US500 the results are good. You have to backtest in other markets to see if its profitable or not.
submitted by RipRepRop to Forex [link] [comments]

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.
TL;DR - I will try and flip an account from $50 or less to $1,000 over 2019. I will post all my account details so my strategy can be seen/copied. I will do this using only three or four trading setups. All of which are simple enough to learn. I will start trading on 10th January.
----
As I see it there are two mains ways to understand how to make money in the markets. The first is to know what the biggest winners in the markets are doing and duplicating what they do. This is hard. Most of the biggest players will not publicly tell people what they are doing. You need to be able to kinda slide in with them and see if you can pick up some info. Not suitable for most people, takes a lot of networking and even then you have to be able to make the correct inferences.
Another way is to know the most common trades of losing traders and then be on the other side of their common mistakes. This is usually far easier, usually everyone knows the mind of a losing trader. I learned about what losing traders do every day by being one of them for many years. I noticed I had an some sort of affinity for buying at the very top of moves and selling at the very bottom. This sucked, however, is was obvious there was winning trades on the other side of what I was doing and the adjustments to be a good trader were small (albeit, tricky).
Thus began the study for entries and maximum risk:reward. See, there have been times I have bought aiming for a 10 pip scalps and hit 100 pips stops loss. Hell, there have been times I was going for 5 pips and hit 100 stop out. This can seem discouraging, but it does mean there must be 1:10 risk:reward pay-off on the other side of these mistakes, and they were mistakes.
If you repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong times, you are making mistakes and probably the same ones over and over again. The market is tricking you! There are specific ways in which price moves that compel people to make these mistakes (I won’t go into this in this post, because it takes too long and this is going to be a long post anyway, but a lot of this is FOMO).
Making mistakes is okay. In fact, as I see it, making mistakes is an essential part of becoming an expert. Making a mistake enough times to understand intrinsically why it is a mistake and then make the required adjustments. Understanding at a deep level why you trade the way you do and why others make the mistakes they do, is an important part of becoming an expert in your chosen area of focus.
I could talk more on these concepts, but to keep the length of the post down, I will crack on to actual examples of trades I look for. Here are my three main criteria. I am looking for tops/bottoms of moves (edge entries). I am looking for 1:3 RR or more potential pay-offs. My strategy assumes that retail trades will lose most of the time. This seems a fair enough assumption. Without meaning to sound too crass about it, smart money will beat dumb money most of the time if the game is base on money. They just will.
So to summarize, I am looking for the points newbies get trapped in bad positions entering into moves too late. From these areas, I am looking for high RR entries.
Setup Examples.
I call this one the “Lightning Bolt correction”, but it is most commonly referred to as a “two leg correction”. I call it a “Lightning Bolt correction” because it looks a bit like one, and it zaps you. If you get it wrong.

https://preview.redd.it/t4whwijse2721.png?width=1326&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9050529c6e2472a3ff9f8e7137bd4a3ee5554cc
Once I see price making the first sell-off move and then begin to rally towards the highs again, I am waiting for a washout spike low. The common trades mistakes I am trading against here is them being too eager to buy into the trend too early and for the to get stopped out/reverse position when it looks like it is making another bearish breakout. Right at that point they panic … literally one candle under there is where I want to be getting in. I want to be buying their stop loss, essentially. “Oh, you don’t want that ...okay, I will have that!”
I need a precise entry. I want to use tiny stops (for big RR) so I need to be cute with entries. For this, I need entry rules. Not just arbitrarily buying the spike out. There are a few moving parts to this that are outside the scope of this post but one of my mains ways is using a fibs extension and looking for reversals just after the 1.61% level. How to draw the fibs is something else that is outside the scope of this but for one simple rule, they can be drawn on the failed new high leg.

https://preview.redd.it/2cd682kve2721.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d081c9faff49d0976f9ffab260aaed2b570309
I am looking for a few specific things for a prime setup. Firstly, I am looking for the false hope candles, the ones that look like they will reverse the market and let those buying too early get out break-even or even at profit. In this case, you can see the hammer and engulfing candle off the 127 level, then it spikes low in that “stop-hunt” sort of style.
Secondly I want to see it trading just past my entry level (161 ext). This rule has come from nothing other than sheer volume. The amount of times I’ve been stopped out by 1 pip by that little sly final low has gave birth to this rule. I am looking for the market to trade under support in a manner that looks like a new strong breakout. When I see this, I am looking to get in with tiny stops, right under the lows. I will also be using smaller charts at this time and looking for reversal clusters of candles. Things like dojis, inverted hammers etc. These are great for sticking stops under.
Important note, when the lightning bolt correction fails to be a good entry, I expect to see another two legs down. I may look to sell into this area sometimes, and also be looking for buying on another couple legs down. It is important to note, though, when this does not work out, I expect there to be continued momentum that is enough to stop out and reasonable stop level for my entry. Which is why I want to cut quick. If a 10 pips stop will hit, usually a 30 pips stop will too. Bin it and look for the next opportunity at better RR.

https://preview.redd.it/mhkgy35ze2721.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18278b85b10278603e5c9c80eb98df3e6878232
Another setup I am watching for is harmonic patterns, and I am using these as a multi-purpose indicator. When I see potentially harmonic patterns forming, I am using their completion level as take profits, I do not want to try and run though reversal patterns I can see forming hours ahead of time. I also use them for entering (similar rules of looking for specific entry criteria for small stops). Finally, I use them as a continuation pattern. If the harmonic pattern runs past the area it may have reversed from, there is a high probability that the market will continue to trend and very basic trend following strategies work well. I learned this from being too stubborn sticking with what I thought were harmonic reversals only to be ran over by a trend (seriously, everything I know I know from how it used to make me lose).

https://preview.redd.it/1ytz2431f2721.png?width=1322&format=png&auto=webp&s=983a7f2a91f9195004ad8a2aa2bb9d4d6f128937
A method of spotting these sorts of M/W harmonics is they tend to form after a second spike out leg never formed. When this happens, it gives me a really good idea of where my profit targets should be and where my next big breakout level is. It is worth noting, larger harmonics using have small harmonics inside them (on lower time-frames) and this can be used for dialling in optimum entries. I also use harmonics far more extensively in ranging markets. Where they tend to have higher win rates.
Next setup is the good old fashioned double bottoms/double top/one tick trap sort of setup. This comes in when the market is highly over extended. It has a small sell-off and rallies back to the highs before having a much larger sell-off. This is a more risky trade in that it sells into what looks like trending momentum and can be stopped out more. However, it also pays a high RR when it works, allowing for it to be ran at reduced risk and still be highly profitable when it comes through.

https://preview.redd.it/1bx83776f2721.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c76c3085598ae70f4142d26c46c8d6e9b1c2881
From these sorts of moves, I am always looking for a follow up buy if it forms a lightning bolt sort of setup.
All of these setups always offer 1:3 or better RR. If they do not, you are doing it wrong (and it will be your stop placement that is wrong). This is not to say the target is always 1:3+, sometimes it is best to lock in profits with training stops. It just means that every time you enter, you can potentially have a trade that runs for many times more than you risked. 1:10 RR can be hit in these sorts of setups sometimes. Paying you 20% for 2% risked.
I want to really stress here that what I am doing is trading against small traders mistakes. I am not trying to “beat the market maker”. I am not trying to reverse engineer J.P Morgan’s black boxes. I do not think I am smart enough to gain a worthwhile edge over these traders. They have more money, they have more data, they have better softwares … they are stronger. Me trying to “beat the market maker” is like me trying to beat up Mike Tyson. I might be able to kick him in the balls and feel smug for a few seconds. However, when he gets up, he is still Tyson and I am still me. I am still going to be pummeled.
I’ve seen some people that were fairly bright people going into training courses and coming out dumb as shit. Thinking they somehow are now going to dominate Goldman Sachs because they learned a chart pattern. Get a grip. For real, get a fucking grip. These buzz phrases are marketeering. Realististically, if you want to win in the markets, you need to have an edge over somebody.
I don’t have edges on the banks. If I could find one, they’d take it away from me. Edges work on inefficiencies in what others do that you can spot and they can not. I do not expect to out-think a banks analysis team. I know for damn sure I can out-think a version of me from 5 years ago … and I know there are enough of them in the markets. I look to trade against them. I just look to protect myself from the larger players so they can only hurt me in limited ways. Rather than letting them corner me and beat me to a pulp (in the form of me watching $1,000 drop off my equity because I moved a stop or something), I just let them kick me in the butt as I run away. It hurts a little, but I will be over it soon.
I believe using these principles, these three simple enough edge entry setups, selectiveness (remembering you are trading against the areas people make mistakes, wait for they areas) and measured aggression a person can make impressive compounded gains over a year. I will attempt to demonstrate this by taking an account of under $100 to over $1,000 in a year. I will use max 10% on risk on a position, the risk will scale down as the account size increases. In most cases, 5% risk per trade will be used, so I will be going for 10-20% or so profits. I will be looking only for prime opportunities, so few trades but hard hitting ones when I take them.
I will start trading around the 10th January. Set remind me if you want to follow along. I will also post my investor login details, so you can see the trades in my account in real time. Letting you see when I place my orders and how I manage running positions.
I also think these same principles can be tweaked in such a way it is possible to flip $50 or so into $1,000 in under a month. I’ve done $10 to $1,000 in three days before. This is far more complex in trade management, though. Making it hard to explain/understand and un-viable for many people to copy (it hedges, does not comply with FIFO, needs 1:500 leverage and also needs spreads under half a pip on EURUSD - not everyone can access all they things). I see all too often people act as if this can’t be done and everyone saying it is lying to sell you something. I do not sell signals. I do not sell training. I have no dog in this fight, I am just saying it can be done. There are people who do it. If you dismiss it as impossible; you will never be one of them.
If I try this 10 times with $50, I probably am more likely to make $1,000 ($500 profit) in a couple months than standard ideas would double $500 - I think I have better RR, even though I may go bust 5 or more times. I may also try to demonstrate this, but it is kinda just show-boating, quite honestly. When it works, it looks cool. When it does not, I can go bust in a single day (see example https://www.fxblue.com/users/redditmicroflip).
So I may or may not try and demonstrate this. All this is, is just taking good basic concepts and applying accelerated risk tactics to them and hitting a winning streak (of far less trades than you may think). Once you have good entries and RR optimization in place - there really is no reason why you can not scale these up to do what may people call impossible (without even trying it).
I know there are a lot of people who do not think these things are possible and tend to just troll whenever people talk about these things. There used to be a time when I’d try to explain why I thought the way I did … before I noticed they only cared about telling me why they were right and discussion was pointless. Therefore, when it comes to replies, I will reply to all comments that ask me a question regarding why I think this can be done, or why I done something that I done. If you are commenting just to tell me all the reasons you think I am wrong and you are right, I will probably not reply. I may well consider your points if they are good ones. I just do not entering into discussions with people who already know everything; it serves no purpose.

Edit: Addition.

I want to talk a bit more about using higher percentage of risk than usual. Firstly, let me say that there are good reasons for risk caps that people often cite as “musts”. There are reasons why 2% is considered optimum for a lot of strategies and there are reasons drawing down too much is a really bad thing.
Please do not be ignorant of this. Please do not assume I am, either. In previous work I done, I was selecting trading strategies that could be used for investment. When doing this, my only concern was drawdown metrics. These are essential for professional money management and they are also essential for personal long-term success in trading.
So please do not think I have not thought of these sorts of things Many of the reasons people say these things can’t work are basic 101 stuff anyone even remotely committed to learning about trading learns in their first 6 months. Trust me, I have thought about these concepts. I just never stopped thinking when I found out what public consensus was.
While these 101 rules make a lot of sense, it does not take away from the fact there are other betting strategies, and if you can know the approximate win rate and pay-off of trades, you can have other ways of deriving optimal bet sizes (risk per trade). Using Kelly Criterion, for example, if the pay-off is 1:3 and there is a 75% chance of winning, the optimal bet size is 62.5%. It would be a viable (high risk) strategy to have extremely filtered conditions that looked for just one perfect set up a month, makingover 150% if it was successful.
Let’s do some math on if you can pull that off three months in a row (using 150% gain, for easy math). Start $100. Month two starts $250. Month three $625. Month three ends $1,562. You have won three trades. Can you win three trades in a row under these conditions? I don’t know … but don’t assume no-one can.
This is extremely high risk, let’s scale it down to meet somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Let’s look at 10%. Same thing, 10% risk looking for ideal opportunities. Maybe trading once every week or so. 30% pay-off is you win. Let’s be realistic here, a lot of strategies can drawdown 10% using low risk without actually having had that good a chance to generate 30% gains in the trades it took to do so. It could be argued that trading seldomly but taking 5* the risk your “supposed” to take can be more risk efficient than many strategies people are using.
I am not saying that you should be doing these things with tens of thousands of dollars. I am not saying you should do these things as long term strategies. What I am saying is do not dismiss things out of hand just because they buck the “common knowns”. There are ways you can use more aggressive trading tactics to turn small sums of money into they $1,000s of dollars accounts that you exercise they stringent money management tactics on.
With all the above being said, you do have to actually understand to what extent you have an edge doing what you are doing. To do this, you should be using standard sorts of risks. Get the basics in place, just do not think you have to always be basic. Once you have good basics in place and actually make a bit of money, you can section off profits for higher risk versions of strategies. The basic concepts of money management are golden. For longevity and large funds; learned them and use them! Just don’t forget to think for yourself once you have done that.

Update -

Okay, I have thought this through a bit more and decided I don't want to post my live account investor login, because it has my full name and I do not know who any of you are. Instead, for copying/observing, I will give demo account login (since I can choose any name for a demo).
I will also copy onto a live account and have that tracked via Myfxbook.
I will do two versions. One will be FIFO compliant. It will trade only single trade positions. The other will not be FIFO compliant, it will open trades in batches. I will link up live account in a week or so. For now, if anyone wants to do BETA testing with the copy trader, you can do so with the following details (this is the non-FIFO compliant version).

Account tracking/copying details.

Low-Medium risk.
IC Markets MT4
Account number: 10307003
Investor PW: lGdMaRe6
Server: Demo:01
(Not FIFO compliant)

Valid and Invalid Complaints.
There are a few things that can pop up in copy trading. I am not a n00b when it comes to this, so I can somewhat forecast what these will be. I can kinda predict what sort of comments there may be. Some of these are valid points that if you raise I should (and will) reply to. Some are things outside of the scope of things I can influence, and as such, there is no point in me replying to. I will just cover them all here the one time.

Valid complains are if I do something dumb or dramatically outside of the strategy I have laid out here. won't do these, if I do, you can pitchfork ----E

Examples;

“Oi, idiot! You opened a trade randomly on a news spike. I got slipped 20 pips and it was a shit entry”.
Perfectly valid complaint.

“Why did you open a trade during swaps hours when the spread was 30 pips?”
Also valid.

“You left huge trades open running into the weekend and now I have serious gap paranoia!”
Definitely valid.

These are examples of me doing dumb stuff. If I do dumb stuff, it is fair enough people say things amounting to “Yo, that was dumb stuff”.

Invalid Complains;

“You bought EURUSD when it was clearly a sell!!!!”
Okay … you sell. No-one is asking you to copy my trades. I am not trading your strategy. Different positions make a market.

“You opened a position too big and I lost X%”.
No. Na uh. You copied a position too big. If you are using a trade copier, you can set maximum risk. If you neglect to do this, you are taking 100% risk. You have no valid compliant for losing. The act of copying and setting the risk settings is you selecting your risk. I am not responsible for your risk. I accept absolutely no liability for any losses.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“You lost X trades in a row at X% so I lost too much”.
Nope. You copied. See above. Anything relating to losing too much in trades (placed in liquid/standard market conditions) is entirely you. I can lose my money. Only you can set it up so you can lose yours. I do not have access to your account. Only mine.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“Price keeps trading close to the pending limit orders but not filling. Your account shows profits, but mine is not getting them”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
* Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Buy limit orders will need to move up a little. Sell limit orders should not need adjusted.

“I got stopped out right before the market turned, I have a loss but your account shows a profit”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Stop losses on sell orders will need to move up a bit. Stops on buy orders will be fine.

“Your trade got stopped out right before the market turned, if it was one more pip in the stop, it would have been a winner!!!”
Yeah. This happens. This is where the “risk” part of “risk:reward” comes in.

“Price traded close to take profit, yours filled but mines never”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
(Side note, this should not be an issue since when my trade closes, it should ping your account to close, too. You might get a couple less pips).
*** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Take profits on buys will need to move up a bit. Sell take profits will be fine.

“My brokers spread jumped to 20 during the New York session so the open trade made a bigger loss than it should”.
Your broker might just suck if this happens. This is brokerage. I have no control over this. My trades are placed to profit from my brokerage conditions. I do not know, so can not account for yours. Also, if accounting for random spread spikes like this was something I had to do, this strategy would not be a thing. It only works with fair brokerage conditions.
*Suggested fix. Do a bit of Googling and find out if you have a horrific broker. If so, fix that! A good search phrase is; “(Broker name) FPA reviews”.

“Price hit the stop loss but was going really fast and my stop got slipped X pips”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
If my trade also got slipped on the stop, I was slipped using ECN conditions with excellent execution; sometimes slips just happen. I am doing the most I can to prevent them, but it is a fact of liquidity that sometimes we get slipped (slippage can also work in our favor, paying us more than the take profit would have been).

“Orders you placed failed to execute on my account because they were too large”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. Margin requirements vary. I have 1:500 leverage available. I will not always be using it, but I can. If you can’t, this will make a difference.

“Your account is making profits trading things my broker does not have”
I have a full range of assets to trade with the broker I use. Included Forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. I may or may not use the extent of these options. I can not account for your brokerage conditions.

I think I have covered most of the common ones here. There are some general rules of thumb, though. Basically, if I do something that is dumb and would have a high probability of losing on any broker traded on, this is a valid complain.

Anything that pertains to risk taken in standard trading conditions is under your control.

Also, anything at all that pertains to brokerage variance there is nothing I can do, other than fully brief you on what to expect up-front. Since I am taking the time to do this, I won’t be a punchbag for anything that happens later pertaining to this.

I am not using an elitist broker. You don’t need $50,000 to open an account, it is only $200. It is accessible to most people - brokerage conditions akin to what I am using are absolutely available to anyone in the UK/Europe/Asia (North America, I am not so up on, so can’t say). With the broker I use, and with others. If you do not take the time to make sure you are trading with a good broker, there is nothing I can do about how that affects your trades.

I am using an A book broker, if you are using B book; it will almost certainly be worse results. You have bad costs. You are essentially buying from reseller and paying a mark-up. (A/B book AKA ECN/Market maker; learn about this here). My EURUSD spread will typically be 0.02 pips or so, if yours is 1 pip, this is a huge difference.
These are typical spreads I am working on.

https://preview.redd.it/yc2c4jfpab721.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=c377686b2485e13171318c9861f42faf325437e1


Check the full range of spreads on Forex, commodities, indices and crypto.

Please understand I want nothing from you if you benefit from this, but I am also due you nothing if you lose. My only term of offering this is that people do not moan at me if they lose money.

I have been fully upfront saying this is geared towards higher risk. I have provided information and tools for you to take control over this. If I do lose people’s money and I know that, I honestly will feel a bit sad about it. However, if you complain about it, all I will say is “I told you that might happen”, because, I am telling you that might happen.

Make clear headed assessments of how much money you can afford to risk, and use these when making your decisions. They are yours to make, and not my responsibility.

Update.

Crazy Kelly Compounding: $100 - $11,000 in 6 Trades.

$100 to $11,000 in 6 trades? Is it a scam? Is it a gamble? … No, it’s maths.

Common sense risk disclaimer: Don’t be a dick! Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Do not risk money doing these things until you can show a regular profit on low risk.
Let’s talk about Crazy Kelly Compounding (CKC). Kelly criterion is a method for selecting optimal bet sizes if the odds and win rate are known (in other words, once you have worked out how to create and assess your edge). You can Google to learn about it in detail. The formula for Kelly criterion is;
((odds-1) * (percentage estimate)) - (1-percent estimate) / (odds-1) X 100
Now let’s say you can filter down a strategy to have a 80% win rate. It trades very rarely, but it had a very high success rate when it does. Let’s say you get 1:2 RR on that trade. Kelly would give you an optimum bet size of about 60% here. So if you win, you win 120%. Losing three trades in a row will bust you. You can still recover from anything less than that, fairly easily with a couple winning trades.
This is where CKC comes in. What if you could string some of these wins together, compounding the gains (so you were risking 60% each time)? What if you could pull off 6 trades in a row doing this?
Here is the math;

https://preview.redd.it/u3u6teqd7c721.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b958747b37b68ec2a769a8368b5cbebfe0e97ff
This shows years, substitute years for trades. 6 trades returns $11,338! This can be done. The question really is if you are able to dial in good enough entries, filter out enough sub-par trades and have the guts to pull the trigger when the time is right. Obviously you need to be willing to take the hit, obviously that hit gets bigger each time you go for it, but the reward to risk ratio is pretty decent if you can afford to lose the money.
We could maybe set something up to do this on cent brokers. So people can do it literally risking a couple dollars. I’d have to check to see if there was suitable spreads etc offered on them, though. They can be kinda icky.
Now listen, I am serious … don’t be a dick. Don’t rush out next week trying to retire by the weekend. What I am showing you is the EXTRA rewards that come with being able to produce good solid results and being able to section off some money for high risk “all or nothing” attempts; using your proven strategies.
I am not saying anyone can open 6 trades and make $11,000 … that is rather improbable. What I am saying is once you can get the strategy side right, and you can know your numbers; then you can use the numbers to see where the limits actually are, how fast your strategy can really go.
This CKC concept is not intended to inspire you to be reckless in trading, it is intended to inspire you to put focus on learning the core skills I am telling you that are behind being able to do this.
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]

Did anyone else feel overwhelmed when they started learning?

Hi guys,
I just got into Forex and I am learning as much as I can. So far, I only opened a demo account so see how it works and also working through the BabyPips website. Every now and then, I'll watch some videos that also explain Forex in specific. However, I must admit, I am barely feet in the works and there's so much content that I can barely remember most of it. Now, I definitely am interested so I have no problem taking my time to go through it, but I was wondering if anyone else shared, or even shares, the same experience as me? A few tips would be greatly appreciate. Thanks:)
submitted by FlippingFlopping to Forex [link] [comments]

People with Forex mentors. How has it helped you?

Good evening/morning depending on from where you're from. I've gone through baby pips and the udemy course. Watched and obscene amount of you tube videos. I feel as though I have and okay grasp on the technical aspect, I can tell I've only got a minimal grasp of it but definitely enough to lose my all my money. So far my demo account is in the negative but, I only just decided on a system that fits my personality. I'm currently using the ichimoku cloud 1hr candles and checking 30min and 4hr time frames to finalize and fine tune my entry.
So, what I would like to know is. I've only heard mentors mentioned on reddit. But it seems mentors are something that people use judging by the communities of gurus who get people together to call out trades.
Is it usually recommended to have a mentor? I've been considering trying to get a forex discord channel started maybe separate channels into trading systems? Are there any open groups to join or discord channels to get into? It's the weekend now and i find myself biting at the bit for forex stuff and of course no trading on the weekends. I feel like I've run out of relevant info I can get off of "sell your training course people". What should I do while I wait for Australia to open on Sunday?
BTW you people are awesome and I enjoy going through the posts and getting fresh perspectives on my new found joy of testing strategies and throwing fake money away.
submitted by Jerkychew86 to Forex [link] [comments]

main trading company

main trading company

We created this website to bring together all the tools and services you’ll need to start trading for real. If you want to start taking advantage of the markets now, without having to become an expert, our free trading signal. Whatever you’re looking for, you’ll find it with us.
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Some traders can’t make 10% per year. Others can safely and consistently make 30% per month and they are not afraid to show their verified performance as a solid proof of what they offer. While taking into consideration a proper risk and money management, you should never aim to make millions in one week with a small account because that would probably mean hitting margin call. Just remember: a good strategy and analysis will always bring profits. And if at the end of the month you have only 1% profit, that means you don’t have -1% loss.

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Most Forex brokers offer many free options, services, tips and information to help you trade better. Real-time charts and news, help guides, and blogs help you understand and learn about the market in real time. There are also many “demo” accounts to try the market before putting in real money.

Why Trade Forex?

The Forex market is fast becoming the most attractive and popular market in the world. The traditional stock is no longer relevant and traders are moving fast into the Forex. We collected here a few reasons to show you why this is happening and what advantages the Forex market has to make is so popular.
We choose to focus on a few very important advantages of the Forex trading and the reasons that people choose this market:
forex is the largest financial market in the world. The daily volume of the Forex market is huge over $3 trillion per day. This makes the stability of the market very good compared to stock trading. The price in the Forex market is exactly what you see is what you get and you can follow it very easily.
Forex trading simplifies everything, there’s no clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees, no middlemen. The elimination of the middlemen gets the traders closer to the actual trade and makes the traders responsible for their pricing. The brokers are usually paid through a service called “bid-ask spread”.
The Forex market is open 24 hours a day. Opening on Monday morning (in Australia) and closing in the afternoon (in New York). This is great for traders that can trade all day long or in parts. You can choose the times that are convenient for your trading, day-night, when you eat or when you sleep, whenever you want.
In Forex trading you can minimize the risk by depositing a small amount that will control a larger contract value. This is controlled by leverage and can make you profitable in the Forex market. If a broker gives 50 to 1 leverage it means that with $50 deposit you can buy or sell with $2500. If you put $500, you can trade with $25,000. All this needs to be done with great risk management because high leverage can easily lead to great loss, as well as great profit.
The Forex market is huge and therefore also very liquid. This means that on every buys or sell that you make, there will be someone who will take the other side of the trade. You will never be grounded because there’s no one on the other side.
To get started you would think that you need a lot of money. The reality is that online Forex brokers have “mini” and “micro” options and some of them have a minimum of only $25. This is great for Forex beginners because it makes the trading starting point easier. I’m not saying that you need to start with the minimum, but being cautious is never bad and starting small is good for the average trader.
main trading company

Forex the best trading market :

You can easily predict the movements in the Forex market you have many repetitive patterns and it’s fairly easy to learn, recognize and analyze these movements. The prices tend to go up or down and return to the average. They stay for quite a long time up or down and this stability makes the Forex market a much easier market to follow. This gives the traders a huge advantage in controlling their trades much better than the disorder.

Risk Warning :

We always suggest our clients to carefully consider their investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. try to money management with every trade.
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. FOREX IN WORLD takes no responsibility for loss incurred as a result of our trading signals. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
FOREX TRADING IN INDIA: Forex means currency pair trading. Indian citizens can trade only currencies that have a pairing with INR. It is legal to trade with Indian Brokers providing access to Indian Exchanges(NSE, BSE, MCX-SX) providing access to Currency Derivatives. Since 2008, RBI and SEBI have permitted trading in currency derivatives. The currency pairs available for trading are USD-INR, EUR-INR, JPY-INR and GBP-INR.
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What Is an Investor

What Is an Investor
investor
Neither a speculator (who chooses about high-risk for high wages) nor a gambler (who wants to the chance of overall reduction for outside of percentage benefits) however one that whose primary targets are worth of their authentic expenditure (the primary), a stable cash flow, along with capital appreciation. See investment.
Investors can additionally embrace various current marketplace plans. Exotic traders tend to get and maintain numerous current industry indicators and could maximize their allocation burdens into specific strength categories centered on regulations like contemporary Portfolio principle ‘s (MPT) mean-variance optimization.
The others might be stock-pickers who make investments by the first examination of business financial statements and financial ratios.
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An investor, an average of, is manufactured differently by an individual dealer. An investor places richesse to make utilize of to get long term profit, though a broker attempts to build short term earnings by purchasing and selling stocks within and more.
Investors usually create returns by leveraging capital since equity or debt investments. Equity investments involve possession bets in the shape of firm stock that can pay gains as well as funding profits.
Financial debt investments could function loans long to new folks or businesses, or even at the buying bonds issued by authorities or firms that cover attention within the sort of vouchers.
Realtors are associations like commercial businesses or mutual funds which make investments in shares as well as different financial tools and also build large portfolios.
Many times, they can collect and swim money by several large shareholders (businesses or individuals ) as a way to shoot more significant investments.
As a result, the institutional traders frequently have much-increased industry strength and sway compared to retail traders.
One case of the is the”worth” traders that want to buy stocks using very lower share costs relative for their publication price.
The others Might Want to speculate long term in”growth” Shares That Might Be losing cash Right Now however indeed are increasing quickly and maintain guarantee for your long run, A large selection of investment vehicles exist for example (although not confined by ) shares, bonds, commodities, mutual capital, exchange-traded finances (ETFs), options, stocks, forex currency, silver, gold, retirement ideas along with property estate.
Investors usually do the fundamental or technical investigation to find out favorable investment chances, and also generally want to lessen risk while maximizing yields. Investors aren’t just a regular group.
They’ve varying hazard tolerances, funding, fashions, choices, and period frames. For example, many traders might favor incredibly low-risk investments that’ll cause traditional profits, like certificates of deposits plus specified bond solutions.
Other shareholders, on the other hand, tend to be more prone to undertake additional hazard to generate more significant earnings. These traders could put money into monies, rising stocks or markets.

Types of investors

There are two types of investors,
  1. Retail investor
  2. Institutional investor

1)Retail investor

  • Folks gaming in games of probability.
  • Individual Traders (such as trusts concerning folks, and also umbrella businesses formed by 2 or more even more to pool investment funds)
  • Collectors of art, antiques, and also other items of significance
  • Angel Traders (people and bands )
  • Sweat equity investor

2)Institutional investor

  • Investors could even be labelled depending on their fashions. Inside this regard, a significant distinguishing invest or psych attribute is hazard frame of mind.
  • Investment funding along with with private-equity funding, that function as expenditure decision collectives concerning an individual, employers, retirement programs, insurance policy policies coverage reservations, or alternative capital.
  • Businesses which create trades, either directly or through a property lender
  • Expenditure frees, such as property investment expects
  • Mutual funds, hedge Finances, along with alternative capital, ownership of that Might or Might not be openly traded(these Cash generally pool cash increased out of their owner-subscribers to Put Money into securities) Sovereign riches funding

Role of the financier

Financier is. Particular financier paths require licenses and degrees for example partnership capitalists, hedge-fund supervisors, believe in finance supervisors, accountants, stock brokers, monetary advisors, or even perhaps people treasurers.
Particular investing about the opposite side doesn’t have requirements and also can be ready to accept all with the way of this stock-market or from the method of mouth-watering asks to get your own money.
Even a financier”is likely to undoubtedly be a more technical financial contributor from the feeling it has encounter in liquidating the kind of agency it’s committing to”.
Even a financier is an individual whose chief job is facilitating or straight supplying investments into up-and-coming or recognized firms and businesses, usually involving significant amounts of cash plus generally involving personal equity and also venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts, corporate fund, investment banking, or even broad asset direction.
Even a financier earns money using this technique when their investment has been reimbursed with attention, from a portion of their provider’s equity given in their mind specified from the business bargain, or even perhaps a financier could earn money utilising commission, overall functionality, and direction service charges.
Even a financier may foster the achievement of the business by permitting the company to benefit from their financier’s standing. Competent and the capable that the financier will be the higher the financier should have the ability to donate towards the victory of this thing that is funded, and also the benefit that the financier will undoubtedly reap. The definition of, financier, is French, also derives out of the fund or even cost. (original post)
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How To Trade Forex

How To Trade Forex

How To Trade Forex
Learn The Basics |Advanced Topics | Chart Patterns | Choose The Best Broker
Beware of scam companies! Trade only with a good licensed broker that holds an FCA or ASIC license like these.

USE A BROKER THAT PROVIDES 0.0 pips Spreads and 500:1 Leverage for better trading!
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How does Forex Work?

Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another…
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Basic Terminology

Before trading currencies, an investor has to understand the basic terminology of the forex market…
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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the study of the overall economic, financial, political…
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Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of prices over time, with charts being the primary tool…
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Trend Lines

The term ‘trend’ describes the current direction of the financial instrument…
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What is a Technical Indicator

Technical Indicators are a result of mathematical calculations/algorithms…
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Gold Trading

As an investment, gold is the most popular of the precious metals…
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Order Types

A market order is an order to open a buy or sell position at…
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We complete our education centre with a breakdown of Gold Trading and details of the different Order Types.
You can also review our glossary to find brief definitions of various trading and financial terms you may encounter.
Once you have familiarised yourself with the information and concepts, you can open a Demo Trading Account to practice what you have learnt and build on your knowledge and understanding of how to trade successfully. Treat your demo account as you would your real account.
Aprender a operar con Forex | Lernen Sie Forex zu handeln

  1. What is Forex? Think the stock market is huge? Think again. Learn about the LARGEST financial market in the world and how to trade in it.
    1. What Is Forex?Learn about this massively huge financial market where fiat currencies are traded.
    2. What Is Traded In Forex?Currencies are the name of the game. Yes, you can buy and sell currencies against each other as a short-term trade, long-term investment, or something in-between.
    3. Buying And Selling Currency PairsThe first thing that you need to know about forex trading is that currencies are traded in pairs; you can’t buy or sell a currency without another.
    4. Forex Market Size And LiquidityThe Forex market is yuuuuuuuggggeeee! And that comes with a lot of benefits for currency traders!
    5. The Different Ways To Trade ForexSome of the more popular ways that traders participate in the forex market is through the spot market, futures, options, and exchange-traded funds.
  2. Why Trade Forex? Want to know some reasons why traders love the forex market? Read on to find out what makes it so attractive!
    1. Why Trade Forex: Advantages Of Forex TradingLow transaction costs and high liquidity are just a couple of the advantages of the forex market.
    2. Why Trade Forex: Forex vs. StocksNobody likes bullies! Good thing for us, unlike the stock market, there is no one financial institute large enough to corner the forex market!
    3. Why Trade Forex: Forex vs. FuturesThe futures market trades a puny $30 billion per day. Thirty billion? Peanuts compared to the FIVE TRILLION that is traded daily in the forex market!
  3. Who Trades Forex? From money exchangers, to banks, to hedge fund managers, to local Joes like your Uncle Pete – everybody participates in the forex market!
    1. Forex Market StructureBecause there is no centralized market, tight competition between banks normally leads to having the best prices! Boo yeah!
    2. Forex Market PlayersThe forex market is basically comprised of four different groups.
    3. Know Your Forex History!If it wasn’t for the Bretton Woods System (and the great Al Gore), there would be no retail forex trading! Time to brush up on your history!
  4. When Can You Trade Forex? Now that you know who participates in the forex market, it’s time to learn when you can trade!
    1. Forex Trading SessionsJust because the forex market is open 24 hours a day doesn’t mean it’s always active! See how the forex market is broken up into four major trading sessions and which ones provides the most opportunities.
    2. When Can You Trade Forex: Tokyo SessionGodzilla, Nintendo, and sushi! What’s not to like about Tokyo?!? The Tokyo session is sometimes referred to as the Asian session, which is also the session where we start fresh every day!
    3. When Can You Trade Forex: London SessionNot only is London the home of Big Ben, David Beckham, and the Queen, but it’s also considered the forex capital of the world–raking in about 30% of all forex transactions every day!
    4. When Can You Trade Forex: New York SessionNew York baby! The concrete jungle where forex dreams are made of! Just like Asia and Europe, the U.S. is considered one of the top financial centers in the world, so it definitely sees its fair share of action–and then some!
    5. Best Times of Day to Trade ForexTrading is all about volatility and liquidity. Which times of day provide the most dynamic market action and volumes?
    6. Best Days of the Week to Trade ForexEach trader should know when to trade and when NOT to trade. Read on to find out the best and worst times to trade.
  5. How Do You Trade Forex? Now, it’s time to learn HOW to rake in the moolah!
    1. How to Make Money Trading ForexJust like any other market: buy low and sell high…and vice versa. Simple, right!?
    2. Know When to Buy or Sell a Currency PairLet’s start with the very basics. First, what drives the value of a currency?
    3. What is a Pip in Forex?You’ve probably heard of the terms “pips,” “pipettes,” and “lots” thrown around, and here we’re going to explain what they are and show you how their values are calculated.
    4. What is a Lot in Forex?How many units of currency can we trade? What size positions can we trade and what are they called?
    5. Impress Your Date with Forex LingoWanna impress your crush? Here are some forex terms to help you wow that special someone!
    6. Types of Forex Orders“Would you like pips with that?” Okay, not that type of order, but buying and selling currencies can be just as simple with a little practice.
    7. Demo Trade Your Way to SuccessCurrency market behavior is constantly evolving. Trade on demo first to get a lot of the rookie mistakes out of the way before risking live capital. There are no take-backs in the real market.
    8. Forex Trading is NOT a Get-Rich-Quick SchemeWhile possible if you’re a trading genius with ice in your veins and you’re luckier than a lottery winner, building wealth through trading takes time and practice to build the skills and experience needed to be successful.
📷
Via XNTRADES.com
Topics Which Every Trader Must Master.
Or at least know your Chart Patterns
Support and Resistance v.1
Support and Resistance v.2
Elliot Waves Theory
Elliott Waves 101
Harmonic Patterns
Chart Patterns
How to Trade Market Structure
More educational materials from TRESORFX.com and XNTRADES.com

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Benefits of Binary Options Trading

Benefits of Binary Options Trading


In the event that you have recently been engaged with exchanging stocks, than how signals work for binary options will be a brisk learning process for you. A large number of similar standards that apply to stocks are likewise utilized with exchanging parallel choices; also, having a decent learning of the market will enable you to settle on educated choices. While exchanging parallel alternatives includes a specific measure of hazard, there are likewise numerous prizes. Because of the higher hazard nature of parallel choices, commonly the profits on your speculation are additionally higher. Normal returns are ordinarily between 60-90%. This analyzes to a FOREX broker who might commonly acknowledge returns of roughly 10%.
You know front and center precisely the amount you are gambling and precisely the amount you will benefit on the off chance that you win the exchange. There is no danger of influence costing your more than the sum you gambled on the exchange. Just your picked sum to chance on a specific exchange is in danger on that exchange. You know precisely how a lot of cash you can lose and how much precisely you can make in the event that you win. It doesn't make a difference how high or low a cost goes as long as it shut in the cash for you. A solitary pip in the cash is tantamount to 50 pips in the cash. Despite everything you get the equivalent payout on the exchange in any case.
Albeit binary options produce higher payouts, the danger of these advantages is definitely higher than different ventures. To help decrease this hazard and make parallel choice exchanging all the more engaging, numerous intermediaries offer a little return on the cash contributed on a losing wager. For example, on an alternative that helped not go in out, rather than losing 100% of the underlying venture, you may get anyplace between 5-15% of that speculation back. For more information please visit our site https://vfxalert.com/en/
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Forex Trading lernen: Video 1 - Was ist ein Pip? [HD ... What is Pips and Pipettes ? Lesson 7: What is a pip worth in forex? Trade sizes and ... 03 - What is a pip? - easyMarkets - Education - YouTube What Are Pips?  Profiting From the Forex Market - YouTube

When forex brokers quote currency pairs, the standard quotes come in are in either 2 or 4 decimal places. In the case above, a pip is in the 1/10,000th place or 4 places to the right of the decimal. Most currency pairs are quoted to the 4th decimal place. A pip, short for point in percentage, represents a tiny measure of the change in a currency pair in the forex market. It can be measured in terms of the quote or in terms of the underlying currency. Calculating pip value and position size. As mentioned, a pip is equivalent to a change of 1 point in fourth decimal in the exchange rate of the currency pair.Keeping that in mind here is how we calculate a pip move as well as price moves in forex trading:. Calculating forex price moves This is because it is a very common concept in Forex trading. But what is a pip? This article will address this question, explaining the meaning of a pip and how useful a concept it is when trading Forex. Forex Pips Explained. A pip is an incremental price movement, with a specific value dependent on the market in question. What Is a Pip? Pip is an acronym for "percentage in point". A pip is the smallest price move that an exchange rate can make based on forex market convention.

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Forex Trading lernen: Video 1 - Was ist ein Pip? [HD ...

This is A Basic Breakdown of What Pips Are. This is the First Part To A Three Part Series So Stay Tuned. SUBSCRIBER COUNT: 17,290 Instagram CITYGIRLTYLERINC ... Get more information about IG US by visiting their website: https://www.ig.com/us/future-of-forex Get my trading strategies here: https://www.robbooker.com C... Jetzt kostenlos & unverbindlich 3 Wochen Forex Lehrgang starten: http://www.forex-ausbildung.com/ :::::... In this video you will learn about pips and pipettes. You can see more videos to learn forex trading in easy way. Subscribe to see more videos. For more info visit: Easy Forex - http://www.easy-forex.com/gtw/6255274.aspx In order to trade successfully you need to understand what a pip is and how to c...

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